Enrollment Forecasts for 2021-2022

I've been hanging out with some friends on Clubhouse on Wednesdays at 9pm ET to talk about the future of K-12 education. You're invited (let me know if you need a Clubhouse invite; requires an iPhone for now). One of the themes we're circling around is the extent to which the pandemic will change education.  Last summer, there was a lot of talk about how the pandemic might lead to bold new approaches in schools. That hasn't happened. Now, as vaccine rates continue to increase and it's likely everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one before Labor Day, the momentum looks to be fully behind "just hang on a few more months until summer and then we'll be back to normal for next school year."

The key here is enrollment. There is little drive for change in the public school model so long as student enrollment remains relatively stable. Stable enrollment allows public schools to receive their share of funding from federal, state, and local budgets.

What do we know about enrollment for next year? A snap-back to 2019 levels? A repeat of 2020 trends? Something else?

Before the pandemic, the U.S. Department of Education predicted public school enrollment for the 2021-2022 school year to be 50,643,000. They based this almost entirely on historic demographic trends, and it's consistent with 2018 and 2019 enrollment numbers. The technical definition of enrollment is agnostic with respect to student participation in-person or remote learning. The student experience through the pandemic requires an additional level of scenario planning and forecasting for next year. Here's what I come up with for next year:

Data points I'm keeping in mind as I create the weightings:

1. There is not yet an accurate count of nationwide public school enrollment for the current 2020-2021 school year. The Department of Education released numbers in the fall: 50,700,000 which is a 100,000 increase over 2019-2020. Huh?
2. I have a hard time trusting the Department of Education number because many large school districts and states are reporting enrollment declines. NYC is down 4%. So is Chicago. The state of California is down 155,000 public school students (2.5%). Even Florida's public schools have seen a decline of nearly 90,000 students (3.1%); same for Texas, down 3%.
3. Where states have provided detailed grade level analysis, much of the enrollment decline has come in the early elementary grades, especially Kindergarten. I'm assuming most of these students will enroll in Kindergarten in September as 6 year-olds.
4. Shifts to private school enrollment are harder to track. Here's a story in Connecticut reporting that the Archdiocese of Hartford experienced a 3.5% enrollment boost this year. One small survey shows more than half of private schools experienced an enrollment bump. But another small survey showed the opposite, where more than half experienced an enrollment decline (given survey samples, both surveys may be accurate).
5. In August and September of 2020, some schools were opening their doors during a rise in local COVID infection rates. Based on current vaccination trends (positive!) and infection rates (declining!), it's more likely than not that schools will be reopening this fall in much more favorable conditions.

What it all boils down to: public schools won't meet the 2021 projections set by the Department of Education but they will rebound from 2020 declines including a return to in-person learning for most students who chose remote learning for 2020.

This won't result in a dramatic change, and yet there are at least two big opportunities to explore:

1. Let's say 1,000,000 students do not re-enroll in public schools next fall. The average school size in the U.S. is about 525 kids. So, that's 1800 schools worth of children, 20,000 micro schools (at 50 students each) or several hundred thousand homeschools. Those are huge numbers when thinking about a viable audience or addressable market for entrepreneurs and providers.
2. Similarly, let's say 49,000,000 kids re-enroll, but 15% of them want to remain in a remote learning setting. First of all, will districts and states allow that? Assuming they do, will we repeat the primary remote learning methods from this year for those 7,500,000 students? I hope not. A teacher teaching students in-person while at the same time teaching students online is nonsense. It doesn't work for the teachers, the students in the room, or the students online. Who makes that better?

We waited until late summer to get our plans ready for the '20-'21 school year and students and teachers have paid the price all year long. It's not too soon to be dedicating time to '21-'22. Enrollment scenarios offer a good, practical starting point.

What do you think is most likely for next year?

See you on Clubhouse at 9pm ET tomorrow!

Photo by Dan Dennis on Unsplash